Influence of Demographic Factors on Air Passenger Demand
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Description: | Airports use long-term air passenger forecasts as the basis
for both airport development plans and for assessing expected future revenue
streams and environmental impacts. It
follows that the reliability of these forecasts and their ability to anticipate
the effect of future changes in the various factors that drive the demand for
air travel are issues that airports need to take into account in their planning
activities. These forecasts are
typically developed using econometric models of air travel demand that explain
the level of air passenger activity in terms of a limited number of aggregate
measures of demographic and economic information, such as population and gross
domestic product. While this approach
appears to have worked fairly well in the past, there is an emerging concern
that the underlying causal relationships may be changing in a way that is not
adequately reflected through the use of such aggregate variables. For example, the changing age structure of
society has implications for the demand for air travel that cannot be explained
by just measuring changes in total population.
Similarly, changes in the distribution of household incomes in recent
years, with the incomes of higher income households growing more rapidly than
those of less affluent households, must clearly have an effect on the demand
for air travel, given the way in which air travel propensity varies with
income. In addition, the following factors clearly influence the demand for air
travel, yet are typically not included in existing forecasting models: Trip
purpose –Trip purpose has an important impact at the airport/city level, with
vacation-oriented destinations (such as Las Vegas) having a different response to changing economic conditions than government-oriented destinations (such as Washington, DC), or business-oriented destinations (such as New York). Changes in disposable household income available for travel – the ability of households to engage in activities requiring air travel depends not only on their income, but also on other demands on that income, including housing, energy and gasoline, health care, food, and taxes, which are likely to change at different rates from their income. Generation Y et al – The generations maturing in today’s world have grown up treating air travel as a common occurrence and thus are more likely to make air trips than older generations. Baby-boomers and retirement – with seniors living longer and many having the ability to travel, a lifestyle of frequent world travel is becoming more common. The research is not intended to focus specifically on these sectors of the population, but rather to recognize
that different age groups have different propensities to travel and changes in
the relative size of each group will have an impact on travel demand. 5.
Immigration – immigrants have a higher propensity to return to their country of
origin for family and vacation visits
The factors influencing the demand for air
travel also vary by region, due to differences in both geographic and
demographic characteristics, suggesting that different demand model
specifications may be needed for different airports. During the 2014 TRB Annual
Meeting a session was held specifically to identify the available sources of
data on such demographic information.
This session identified a number of promising data sources, including
air passenger surveys performed by airport operators, data collected by
airlines, and a comprehensive survey of international air travelers undertaken
by the U.S. International Trade Administration each year for the past 30 years.
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Objective: | There
are two related objectives to the proposed research: the first is to determine
how the demand for air travel will be influenced by changes in the distribution
of demographic and socio-economic factors across the population as well as by
factors other than the aggregate demographic and economic variables currently
used in demand models, and second to explore the relative influence of these
factors on air travel demand at the local (airport or region) or national
level.
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Related Research: | The
International Trade Administration of the U.S. Department of Commerce conducts
an on-going survey of international air travelers. This data goes back to 1983 and contains much
valuable information on traveler demographics that can be exploited. Published reports show traveler
characteristics for each year of data but no analysis of trends in these
characteristics has been identified. The FAA Office of Aviation Policy and
Plans recently completed research on the wealth destruction of U.S. families
and its impact on air travel (D. Bhadra, Journal of the Transportation Research
Forum, Vol. 51, No. 1). Not
surprisingly, the research showed that with a loss of wealth people fly
less. But what was interesting was that
with an increase in wealth, air travel increased at a faster rate. A recently
completed ACRP Graduate Research Award Project by Josie Kressner, published in
the Transportation Research Record, No. 2266, explored the use of lifestyle
segmentation variables to predict home-based trips at a major U.S. hub
airport. The results of this research
have suggested the value of including a wider range of demographic and socio-economic
variables in air travel demand forecasts. ACRP Synthesis 2 Airport Aviation
Activity Forecasting has identified numerous areas for expanded research. The incorporation of a better understanding
of the role of socio-economic and demographic factors on the demand for air
travel would greatly assist in improving aviation activity forecasting
techniques. The report on ACRP Project 11-02, Task 7, Strategic Process for
Developing ACRP Research Problem Statements (ACRP Research Results Digest 5
Current and Emerging Issues Facing the Airport Industry) identified a number of
research requirements that would be covered in whole, or in part, by this
problem statement; including Airport/Airline Economics and Forecasting, and
Changing Demand for Air Service. ACRP Report 26 Guidebook for Conducting
Airport-User Surveys has identified techniques for improving the collection of
air passenger information, including demographic and socio-economic factors,
with the long-term objective of standardizing the types and methods of data
collection. However, to fully leverage
the findings of such surveys to support improved aviation activity forecasts
there needs to be a better understanding of what demographic and socio-economic
data to collect in future surveys. ACRP Report 76 Addressing Uncertainty about
Future Airport Activity Levels in Airport Decision Making and ACRP Report 98
Understanding Airline and Passenger Choice in Multi-Airport Regions both
provide useful information and insights that are relevant to the issues to be
explored by the proposed research described in this problem statement. However, neither project addressed the issues
raised in this problem statement or fully answered airport needs for improved
forecasting techniques.
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Sponsoring Committee: | AV020, Aviation System Planning |
Research Period: | 24 - 36 months |
Date Posted: | 12/12/2015 |
Date Modified: | 09/25/2016 |
Index Terms: | Airport planning, Demand, Demographics, Forecasting, Passengers, Socioeconomic factors, |
Cosponsoring Committees: | |
Subjects |
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Aviation
Planning and Forecasting
Society
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