Integration of the Individual Behavior Research with Existing and Emerging Travel Demand Models
After many years of using the four-step travel modeling process, several early adopter agencies have started to use advanced modeling practice. These newer techniques are better adapted to address issues of concern to decision makers and citizens. This change in the modeling paradigm took a long time to enter modeling practice. Research on these methods has been underway for many years and finally is ready for adoption.
The adoption of these activity-based techniques, rather than trip-based techniques occurred in response to the wider range of policy questions being asked by decision makers and citizens. With increasing concern regarding climate change, the need to find alternatives to vehicle travel was critical. Issues such pricing, travel demand management, expanded transit, biking, compact urban development, and telecommuting, cannot be adequately, analyzed using traditional methods.
It is likely that the use of these newer techniques will expand in the future. However, this expanded use needs to be fostered, facilitated and evaluated by the travel analysis community.
Research is needed to track these early adopters and analyze the usefulness of these techniques and their difficulties. It is necessary to determine whether these new techniques address new issues of concern as well as their theoretical soundness and ease of use. What elements of these techniques are transferrable to other areas based on their applicability and effectiveness?
Travel demand analysis, travel demand forecasting, travel demand practice
- Advanced Practices In Travel Forecasting: A Synthesis Of Highway Practice, By Rick Donnelly, Greg D. Erhardt, Rolf Moeckel And William A. Davidson, NCHRP Synthesis 406, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2010.
- Travel Demand Forecasting: Parameters And Techniques By Cambridge Systematics, Inc., Vanasse Hangen Brustlin, Inc., Gallop Corporation, Chandra R. Bhat, Shapiro Transportation Consulting, Llc, And Martin/Alexiou/Bryson, Pllc, NCHRP Report 716, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2012
Current travel demand models are not adequate to address many policy questions being asked. It is imperative to move advanced travel forecasting techniques into practice so that decision makers and citizens can make informed decisions on improvements to the transportation systems in their areas.
MPOs, State DOTs, Transit Agencies, FHWA, FTA, Universities, Consultants
The findings from this research should be widely shared with other potential adopters and funding agencies.