Impact of Congestion Policies on Demand at Neighboring Airports
RESEARCH PROBLEM STATEMENT
In the past several years, as demand has rebounded back from its low level in early 2000, several airports such as Chicago O’Hare International(ORD) and John F Kennedy International(JFK) have experienced increasingly longer flight delays. The FAA has proposed schedule restrictions at these airports to help alleviate the delays. However, it is unclear whether the restrictions at ORD have had any impact on the demand at Chicago Midway International (MDW). In the case of JFK, it is anticipated that flights will be diverted from JFK to Newark Liberty International (EWR) as a result of the JFK restrictions but it is unclear how many flights will be impacted. Neighboring airports in the New York metropolitan area such as Stewart International in Newburgh, NY (SWF) and Long Island Macarthur (ISP) are also expected to gain additional service due to the cutbacks at JFK but it is unclear how many additional flights will shift to these airports.
There has been a lot of research conducted on airport choice models. Among the many factors are the air carrier and type of service offered (airfare, frequency, fleet type, nonstop versus connecting), the demographics and economics of the local population and local transportation options which provide access to the airport. However, what has not been done to date, is work on how specific policies at one airport will impact or shift demand to a neighboring airport.
The objective of this research is to determine how congestion policies at a highly constrained airport impact the demand at neighboring airports. An understanding of the demand shifts will have implications on the capital improvement implications at neighboring airports, and the new dynamics that could alter terminal airspace flows and complexity in the metropolitan area.
Develop a forecasting model that will take into account the displacement of demand due to congestion policies at highly constrained airports. Validate the model with historical data.
ESTIMATE OF THE PROBLEM FUNDING AND RESEARCH PERIOD
Recommended Funding $300,000
Research Period: 1 year
URGENCY AND PAYOFF POTENTIAL
Results from this research will better inform the potential impact of future congestion policies and proactively help the metropolitan area anticipate and plan for growth at neighboring airports.